Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Match O/U 22.5 | 31% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Match O/U 21.5 | 1% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Match O/U 23.5 | 1% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open, qualification wta: lucie havlickova vs nao hibino stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Lucie Havlickova and Nao Hibino in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This mark…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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