Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic | 76% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Game Spread +/-3.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of us open, qualification wta: kristina liutova vs lola radivojevic. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Kristina Liutova and Lola Radivojevic in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 3:30PM ET. This…
Methodology
We track US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Lola Radivojevic across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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