Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
59% | 41% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
59% | 41% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 59% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 59% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Set 1 Winner | 27% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Set 2 Winner | 27% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic | 20% |
| US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 19% |
Market context
Market consensus: 59% chance of us open wta: yulia putintseva vs belinda bencic. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Yulia Putintseva and Belinda Bencic in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
We track US Open WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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