Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Game Spread +/-2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification wta: dominika salkova vs gabriela knutson. This market refers to the tennis match between Dominika Salkova and Gabriela Knutson in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
We track US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Gabriela Knutson across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
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