Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang. This market refers to the tennis match between Sanhui Shin and Alexander Chang in the ITF Men Bali, originally scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 12:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sanhui Shin' if …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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