Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Gwangju FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Gwangju FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Gwangju FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Gwangju FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Gwangju FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Gwangju FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Gwangju FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Gwangju FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Gwangju FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Gwangju FC are hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC in the K-League at Gwangju Football Stadium, with Polymarket’s **More Markets** contract sitting at **0% YES** on the current crowd view, so the market is effectively pricing no additional listed outcome as live at this point. Because settlement runs to 10:30 UTC, traders are reading the contract through the on-chain lens: USDC collateral, Polygon settlement, and conditional tokens that only resolve if the specified “more markets” condition is met.
For context, the underlying match has been treated as a tight fixture by pre-match and live score services, with one price feed showing Gimcheon Sangmu as the narrower favourite at around 1.8 and another live feed listing the game as level at half-time, which is the kind of in-play shape that often keeps adjacent market lines shallow rather than broadening them suddenly.[3][4] That matters on Polymarket because low crowd-implied probability can persist when the contract depends on a specific extra listing or trigger, not simply on who wins the football match.
The main catalysts are procedural rather than tactical: whether Polymarket adds or confirms any further markets tied to this fixture, how the exchange or market creator defines the settlement condition, and whether any late schedule or line-up updates alter the trading view before the window closes. The match itself is scheduled for 10:30 UTC, and live score pages confirm the venue and timing, so traders watching the contract should focus on platform announcements and whether the market remains eligible to resolve before expiry.[2][5]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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