Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
86% | 14% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
86% | 14% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 3 - 0 Levante UD | 86% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 3 - 1 Levante UD | 28% |
| Any Other Score | 25% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 3 - 2 Levante UD | 22% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2 - 0 Levante UD | 1% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2 - 1 Levante UD | 1% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 3 - 3 Levante UD | 1% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0 - 0 Levante UD | 0% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0 - 1 Levante UD | 0% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 0 Levante UD | 0% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0 - 2 Levante UD | 0% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 1 Levante UD | 0% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0 - 3 Levante UD | 0% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 2 Levante UD | 0% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 3 Levante UD | 0% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2 - 2 Levante UD | 0% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2 - 3 Levante UD | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing this Espanyol–Levante correct-score contract at 0% YES, which implies the listed score outcome is effectively treated as impossible unless fresh pre-match information shifts the book before the 17:00 UTC settlement cut-off. The market resolves on the final 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, so anyone holding conditional tokens on Polygon is exposed to the exact full-time score, not extra time or penalties.
The historical frame is a low-scoring one: the sides’ most recent meeting ended 0-0, and previews have pointed to a tight opening-day fixture at RCDE Stadium rather than a wide-open goalfest. For exact-score markets, that matters because the distribution is usually concentrated around a few common results, with 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1 carrying far more weight than rarer lines; a 0% crowd price is therefore more about the current contract setup than any guarantee on the pitch.
A trader should watch line-ups, late injuries, and any kick-off change or postponement notice, because these are the main items that can alter a correct-score market in the final hours. This is an opening-round La Liga fixture, and recent listings place it at RCDE Stadium with Sunday timing across multiple feeds, so confirmation of the official start time and team sheets is the key dependency before settlement.
Methodology
We track RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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