Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Dallas (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Dallas 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Querétaro FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Dallas (-2.5) | 0% |
| Querétaro FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Dallas O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Dallas 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Dallas 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Dallas v Querétaro is the first Leagues Cup meeting between the clubs, and Polymarket is pricing the **“More Markets”** contract at **100% YES** as the market heads into settlement. On a Polymarket user’s screen, that means the USDC-backed, Polygon-settled conditional token has already been bid to the ceiling: the contract is no longer about judging the match abstractly, but about whether any qualifying subsidiary market tied to this fixture resolves as expected within the settlement window ending 2026-08-06T00:30:00Z.[1][3][5]
That kind of pricing is easier to read when set against the football context. FC Dallas entered the tie as the pre-match favourite on Polymarket, while the fixture itself had no prior head-to-head history, so traders were leaning on home advantage, recent form, and Leagues Cup record rather than a direct matchup sample.[1] Dallas had also arrived off a scoreless draw with LA Galaxy, while Querétaro came in after consecutive Liga MX wins over Pachuca and Tigres and with Ali Ávila scoring four times in their last five official matches.[1] In comparable cup settings, a first meeting plus mixed cross-league form often pushes derivative markets towards clean, event-confirming outcomes rather than narrow scoreline speculation.[1][14]
For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: official line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and the Leagues Cup schedule around this opener, because FC Dallas also has fixtures against Chivas on 8 August and Toluca on 12 August.[5][10] Broadcast listings confirmed the game for 5 August at 8:30 PM ET on Apple TV, with the kick-off window aligning with the market’s settlement timing, so any delay, abandonment, or administrative change would matter more to the contract than the pre-match narrative itself.[1][5][13]
Methodology
We track FC Dallas vs. Querétaro FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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