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LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Live odds for "LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs" pulled from the Polygon order book, alongside the platform attributes of every venue that runs this contract.

Match Winner 90% Game 1 Winner 76% Game 2 Winner 76% Game 3 Winner 76% Volume: $84K Liquidity: $337K Closes: 27 Sept 2026
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LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 90% 10% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 90% 10% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner90%
Game 1 Winner76%
Game 2 Winner76%
Game 3 Winner76%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)76%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?72%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?71%
Game 4 Winner60%
O/U 3.5 Games55%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?50%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
First Blood in Game 1?49%
First Blood in Game 3?49%
Odd/Even Total Kills48%
First Blood in Game 2?48%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)46%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?40%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?28%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
O/U 4.5 Games20%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: lyon vs shopify rebellion (bo5) - lcs playoffs stands at 90% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between LYON and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This …

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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