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LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Play-In

How the prediction-market book is pricing "LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Play-In" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 82% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 81% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 77% O/U 3.5 Games 72% Volume: $94K Liquidity: $547K Closes: 27 Aug 2026
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LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Play-In

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 82% 18% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 82% 18% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon82%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon81%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon77%
O/U 3.5 Games72%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?70%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?61%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?61%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?60%
Game 3 Winner56%
Match Winner56%
First Blood in Game 4?56%
Game 1 Winner55%
Game 2 Winner54%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor54%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor54%
Any Player Quadra Kill53%
Any Player Quadra Kill53%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Game 4 Winner51%
First Blood in Game 2?51%
First Blood in Game 3?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?46%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)40%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon40%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon40%
O/U 4.5 Games36%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Penta Kill21%
Any Player Penta Kill21%
Game Handicap: NS (-2.5) vs BNK FEARX (+2.5)18%
Any Player Penta Kill16%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor13%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor13%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor13%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors9%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors9%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors8%
Any Player Penta Kill8%

Market context

Market consensus: 82% chance of lol: nongshim red force vs bnk fearx (bo5) - lck play-in. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Nongshim Red Force and BNK FEARX in the LCK Play-In, initially scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. Thi…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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