Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Atlético San Luis 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| CF Cruz Azul 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| CF Cruz Azul 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Atlético San Luis (-1.5) | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul (-1.5) | 0% |
| Atlético San Luis (-2.5) | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlético San Luis O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Atlético San Luis will travel to Mexico City to face CF Cruz Azul on 17 July at 9:00 PM ET in a Liga MX fixture. The current Polymarket pricing shows 0% implied probability for this "More Markets" contract, reflecting settlement mechanics tied to additional betting options becoming available rather than the match outcome itself. On-chain, traders are holding conditional tokens on Polygon, denominated in USDC, with the settlement window closing just after midnight on 18 July.
Historical precedent suggests that Liga MX matches routinely generate supplementary market offerings as kickoff approaches. Sportsbooks and prediction platforms typically expand their contract menus 24–48 hours before fixture time, particularly for high-profile matchups involving established clubs like Cruz Azul. The 0% reading indicates either that secondary markets have not yet materialised or that traders assign negligible probability to their emergence by the settlement deadline. Cruz Azul, as a traditional powerhouse, commands consistent liquidity across betting platforms, whilst San Luis operates with lower baseline trading volume.
Traders should monitor Liga MX's official fixture calendar and Polymarket's own contract deployment schedule. Cruz Azul's recent form and squad availability—particularly injury updates released in the 48 hours before the match—typically trigger expanded market creation. The settlement window's tight closure (just one hour after the scheduled 9:00 PM ET start) means any new contract listings must occur well before kickoff. Announcements from either club regarding team news or broadcast partnerships could signal when additional markets will go live.
Methodology
This page reviews Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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