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Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals

Five-platform snapshot of "Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 81% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 69% 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 57% NRFI 55% Volume: $355K Liquidity: $701K Closes: 15 Jul 2026
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Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 81% 19% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 81% 19% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.581%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.569%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.557%
NRFI55%
O/U 9.554%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.548%
O/U 10.546%
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals45%
Spread -1.539%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.537%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.535%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.527%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.525%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.513%
Extra Innings9%

Market context

Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals — current market-implied probability: 81%. In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals, scheduled for July 8 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 81% for "Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 81% Other 19%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $355K.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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