Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| SK Brann O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SK Brann O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Vålerenga Fotball O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Vålerenga Fotball O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Vålerenga Fotball O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Vålerenga Fotball 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Vålerenga Fotball 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SK Brann 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SK Brann 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SK Brann (-1.5) | 0% |
| Vålerenga Fotball (-1.5) | 0% |
| SK Brann (-2.5) | 0% |
| Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| SK Brann O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SK Brann 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SK Brann 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Vålerenga Fotball 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Vålerenga Fotball 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
SK Brann host Vålerenga Fotball in an Eliteserien match scheduled for 26 July at Brann Stadion, and Polymarket is pricing the associated **more markets** contract at **0% YES** on the current crowd read. On Polymarket, that means traders are assigning no value to the specific conditional-token outcome inside the USDC-settled, Polygon-based market, so the contract is effectively trading as a dead line unless the market’s exact resolution criteria are met by the settlement time.
The historical frame is mixed rather than one-sided. Brann beat Vålerenga 3-2 in their most recent listed league meeting in September 2025, which supports the idea that this is often a competitive fixture rather than a routine home win[2][3]. Independent pre-match models have also treated the game as relatively balanced, with one preview putting Brann’s win chance at 57.72%, a draw at 21.28% and Vålerenga at 21%[5]. For a Polymarket user, that kind of pre-match uncertainty matters less than whether the “more markets” contract resolves around a specific added condition, because a 0% price usually reflects either a very unlikely trigger or a market that has not attracted active conditional-token demand.
The main catalysts to watch are team news, late schedule changes, and any clarification of how the extra market is defined and resolved before the 12:30 UTC settlement window closes. The fixture listing itself places the match for today at Brann Stadion, but without a detailed live feed in the market description, traders are left to track official club line-ups, league updates, and any postponement or timing adjustments that could affect settlement[4]. If the contract depends on a specific “more markets” outcome rather than the result alone, the relevant signal is not the scoreline but whether the embedded condition becomes unambiguous before expiry.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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