Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Botoşani O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Rapid 1923 O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Rapid 1923 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Botoşani 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Botoşani (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Rapid 1923 (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Botoşani (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Rapid 1923 (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Botoşani O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Botoşani O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Rapid 1923 O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Rapid 1923 O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Botoşani 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Botoşani 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Rapid 1923 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Botoşani 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Rapid 1923 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Rapid 1923 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Botoşani and FC Rapid 1923 meet in the Romanian SuperLiga on 27 July at 14:30 ET, with conditional tokens on Polygon currently pricing the "More Markets" contract at zero YES probability. This reflects the market's assessment that no additional derivative markets will be created for this fixture before the settlement window closes at 18:30 UTC that day—a tight constraint given that the match itself kicks off just hours before the deadline.
The zero probability reading sits unusually low when compared to comparable SuperLiga fixtures on Polymarket. Historical patterns show that high-profile Romanian league matches, particularly those involving established clubs like Rapid, typically attract secondary market creation within 48 hours of kick-off. Botoşani's status as a mid-table side may suppress trader interest, but Rapid's consistent presence in European qualification rounds has historically driven liquidity expansion across related markets. The current pricing suggests either minimal expected engagement or genuine uncertainty about whether Polymarket's market creation mechanisms will activate before the window closes.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Rapid's official team news and any European competition announcements that might elevate fixture prominence. The SuperLiga's fixture calendar and Polymarket's own market-creation velocity for Romanian football remain key variables. Settlement hinges entirely on whether new conditional markets spawn before 18:30 UTC on match day—a binary outcome disconnected from the sporting result itself. USDC deposits on Polygon remain the settlement currency across all related contracts.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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