Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 100% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 100% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 100% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Dean Henderson: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Dean Henderson: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Dean Henderson: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Dean Henderson: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
Market context
England and DR Congo face off in the FIFA World Cup Round of 32 on 1 July at 12:00 PM ET, a match where England are overwhelming favourites to win by two or more goals. On Polymarket today, the contract for England vs DR Congo player props is priced at 0% YES, reflecting near-total market certainty that the underlying player prop conditions will not be met, likely due to the expected scoreline and clean sheet. This pricing aligns with traditional sportsbooks, where England sit at -850 (89.47% implied probability) to win, and DR Congo are +550 to pull off a shock[4].
Historically, similar mismatches in World Cup Round of 32 games have seen dominant teams like England secure controlled wins with clean sheets, often by the exact 2–0 scoreline. Under coach Thomas Tuchel, England won seven of their 17 matches by that precise margin, making a 2–0 England win a statistically favoured outcome[5]. In such cases, player props tied to DR Congo scoring or both teams scoring are routinely voided or fail, which explains the current 0% market pricing.
Traders should monitor pre-match announcements for any late squad changes, particularly regarding Harry Kane and Yoane Wissa, who are headline prop picks for England[1]. The key catalyst is the official starting lineups, released approximately one hour before kick-off, which will confirm whether England’s attacking strength remains intact. Additionally, watch for any weather updates or pitch conditions at the venue, as these could influence goal totals. With the settlement window ending 2026-07-01T16:00:00Z, all on-chain USDC transactions on Polygon will settle based on the final match result, governed by conditional tokens[2].
Methodology
This page reviews England vs. DR Congo - Player Props across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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