Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| SK Iberia 1999 O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Larne FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SK Iberia 1999 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Larne FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| SK Iberia 1999 (-1.5) | 0% |
| Larne FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| SK Iberia 1999 (-2.5) | 0% |
| Larne FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SK Iberia 1999 O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Iberia 1999 O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SK Iberia 1999 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SK Iberia 1999 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SK Iberia 1999 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
SK Iberia will face Larne FC in a UEFA Europa League qualifying round match on 11 August at 12:00 PM ET. The market currently prices additional betting opportunities on this fixture at 0% YES on Polygon, suggesting traders are either awaiting clarification on what secondary markets Polymarket will offer or have already priced out demand for supplementary contracts beyond the standard match outcome. Settlement occurs at 16:00 UTC on 11 August, giving a four-hour window after kick-off for resolution.
SK Iberia, a Spanish club competing in the second tier, represents a modest favourite in Europa League qualifying contexts. Larne, from Northern Ireland's top division, typically face steep odds when drawn against continental opposition of this calibre. Historical patterns show that secondary markets on Polymarket—such as exact scorelines, first goalscorer, or corner counts—tend to activate only when primary markets achieve sufficient liquidity and trader interest. The 0% probability may reflect that no such conditional tokens have been created yet, rather than indicating zero expected demand.
Traders should monitor Polymarket's official announcements regarding which additional markets will launch for this fixture. Confirmation of team lineups closer to 11 August, injury updates, and any late changes to kick-off time could shift conditional token creation decisions. Recent Europa League qualifying rounds have seen variable liquidity in secondary markets depending on the profile of clubs involved and regional trader concentration. Watch for activity spikes once Polymarket formally lists any new contracts tied to this match.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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