Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 75% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 75% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs Team Heretics (+3.5) | 48% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 46% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 45% |
| Map 2 Winner | 40% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Match Winner | 32% |
| Map 1 Winner | 31% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: eternal fire vs team heretics (bo3) - vct emea group omega stands at 75% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Eternal Fire and Team Heretics in the VCT EMEA Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 23 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT … on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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