Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 70% |
| Match Winner | 64% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) | 60% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 60% |
| Map 2 Winner | 54% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 54% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 47% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) | 46% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 24% |
| Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) | 18% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: paper rex vs t1 (bo3) - vct pacific group omega stands at 70% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Paper Rex and T1 in the VCT Pacific Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 18 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Paper …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: Paper Rex vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group … on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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