Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tony Dunst | 100% |
| Kristen Foxen | 98% |
| Brian Hastings | 98% |
| Robert Eichele | 97% |
| Kathy Liebert | 97% |
| Stephen Song | 97% |
| Michael Mizrachi | 96% |
| Jeremy Ausmus | 96% |
| Chris Moneymaker | 96% |
| Alex Foxen | 96% |
| Greg Raymer | 96% |
| Stephen Chidwick | 51% |
| Martin Zamani | 51% |
| Ryuta Nakai | 51% |
| Chris Hunichen | 51% |
| Erik Seidel | 49% |
| Greg Merson | 49% |
| Gerard Piqué | 49% |
| Joe McKeehen | 49% |
| Daniel Negreanu | 5% |
| Martin Kabrhel | 3% |
| Phil Hellmuth | 3% |
| Freddy Deeb | 3% |
| Scott Seiver | 2% |
| Robert Varkonyi | 1% |
| Jason Koon | 0% |
| Joe Cada | 0% |
| Daniel Weinman | 0% |
| Damian Salas | 0% |
| Viktor Blom | 0% |
| Sean O'Malley | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wsop 2026 main event: which players will cash. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes the 2026 World Series of Poker Main Event, Event #82, held July 2–13, 2026, with the final table played August 3–5, 202…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash on PolyGram
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