Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Match O/U 21.5 | 99% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea | 87% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, iasi open, qualification: ilinca amariei vs carmen andreea herea stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Ilinca Amariei and Carmen Andreea Herea in the Iasi Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This m…
Methodology
This page reviews Iasi Open, Qualification: Ilinca Amariei vs Carmen Andreea Herea across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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