Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei | 93% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Match O/U 22.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 26% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to warsaw: carol young suh lee vs aliona falei. This market refers to the tennis match between Carol Young Suh Lee and Aliona Falei in the Warsaw, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carol Young Suh L…
Methodology
We track Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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