Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to cincinnati open, qualification: lucrezia stefanini vs leolia jeanjean. This market refers to the tennis match between Lucrezia Stefanini and Leolia Jeanjean in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
We track Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Leolia Jeanjean across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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