Which company has the best Math AI model end of July?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic currently holds the top spot in the Chatbot Arena’s Math leaderboard with claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 1518 Elo, making it the immediate favourite in a market pricing the company at 49% YES for best Math AI by end of July 2026[1]. This tight probability reflects a history of rapid volatility in the Math category, where Elo scores have surged by +172 points since tracking began, averaging gains that can flip leadership within weeks[1]. Comparable shifts occurred when GPT-5.4 briefly overtook Claude Opus 4.6 by just 8 Elo points, proving that marginal differences often dictate the winner rather than dominant leads[3].

Traders must monitor Anthropic’s release schedule for Opus 4.7 or newer variants, as well as Google’s potential Gemini 3.1 updates, both of which could disrupt the current ranking before the 31 July settlement[3]. The market resolves strictly on the “Text Arena | Math” table at lmarena.ai, where style control is off and rank is the primary ordering metric, meaning even minor Elo fluctuations alter the outcome[1]. Recent analysis warns that Chatbot Arena rankings are highly sensitive to small data subsets, with removing just two preferences from 57,000 altering the top model, adding uncertainty to the final check[8]. On-chain, positions settle in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, locking exposure until the leaderboard snapshot is taken.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.