Next Claude Opus released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s next Claude Opus model is expected to reach the general public before the end of 2026, a view reflected by the 95% YES price on Polymarket today. Traders on the platform are buying and selling conditional tokens in USDC on Polygon, locking in exposure to whether an officially named Opus variant—such as Opus 4.9 or Opus 5.0—launches publicly within the settlement window.

Historically, Anthropic has maintained a tight release cadence for Opus, with Claude Opus 4.8 arriving on 28 May 2026 after 4.7 in late 2025 and 4.6 earlier that year [1][2]. This pattern of incremental point-bump refreshes, rather than full-generation jumps, suggests a high likelihood of another Opus update before December 2026, especially given that no new generation (like Claude 5) has been confirmed as of late June 2026 [3].

Key catalysts include any official announcement from Anthropic regarding an Opus refresh, the potential restoration of the suspended Mythos-class Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, and progress on export-control compliance that could clear the way for broader releases [3]. Traders should monitor Anthropic’s newsroom and developer channels for model ID updates like `claude-opus-4-9`, as API availability typically coincides with public access [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.