National Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Learner Tien

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Learner Tien** at **1% YES** for Aguilar, so the contract is effectively treating Tien as overwhelmingly likely to advance. On Polymarket, the trade settles in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the market is not about who wins the first set or covers a game line; it is a binary read on the official match result, with a 50-50 fallback only if the match is not completed within the market rules.

That low Aguilar price sits well below the consensus in published tennis previews and bookmaker-style markets. Tennis Tonic picked **Tien** to win in three sets, while odds comparators have Tien around the **1.47-1.51** range and Aguilar roughly **2.55-2.75**, which maps to a clear but not total favourite position for Tien.[1][3][7][10] String Tension’s Elo model is stronger still, giving Tien about **76.3%** versus **23.7%** for Aguilar, while Tennis.com’s match page projected Tien at **65%**; those figures are far above Polymarket’s 1% YES on Aguilar, showing the contract is pricing an extreme tail outcome rather than a routine upset.[4][11]

For a trader, the key catalysts are straightforward: the official ATP schedule, whether the quarter-final is moved or delayed, and any late withdrawals or retirement scenarios that can push the market towards the 50-50 rule if the match is never completed.[2][9][13] The listed start times in public feeds vary slightly, which is common for tennis scheduling, so the main practical risk is not the match-up itself but whether the event begins on time and finishes inside the settlement window ending 2026-08-18T14:00:00Z.[2][9][10] If play starts, live scoreboard and order of play updates matter because in-play interruptions can shift the path to resolution even when the pre-match price is already very one-sided.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.