Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin

Platform comparison

Market context

Nicolas Arseneault faces Andres Martin in the Granby Challenger tomorrow, a match originally set for 10:00AM ET on 13 July 2026. Polymarket prices the contract at 25% YES for Arseneault advancing, implying a significant edge for the American despite the two players having no prior head-to-head record [1]. This is their first meeting, meaning the market relies entirely on form and ranking rather than historical dominance.

Historical data from the 2025 Granby event shows Andres Martin progressing through qualifying before losing in the main draw, while Arseneault entered as a wildcard and won his opening match [10]. Arseneault currently holds a career win-loss of 45–38 (54%) and sits at world No. 674, whereas Martin has a stronger pedigree on the Challenger circuit [4]. The 25% probability for Arseneault aligns with his lower ranking but reflects his recent win in Little Rock against Henry Searle, suggesting he is in competitive form [3].

Traders should monitor the official ATP Challenger schedule for any weather delays or player withdrawals, as the settlement window resolves to 50-50 if the match is delayed beyond seven days without a winner [1]. Key catalysts include the 3:00pm local start time confirmation on 13 July and any pre-match fitness announcements from either player’s camp [1]. Since the market settles on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, liquidity shifts will depend on real-time updates from the Granby venue rather than abstract ranking projections.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.