Bunschoten: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Filippo Romano

Platform comparison

Market context

The Bunschoten tennis match between Gilles Arnaud Bailly and Filippo Romano, scheduled for 4:00 AM ET on 13 July 2026, is currently priced at 0% YES on Polymarket, implying the crowd expects Bailly to lose or the event to fail. This contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, treats the outcome as a binary resolution where advancing against the opponent determines the winner, while cancellations or delays beyond seven days trigger a 50-50 split.

Historical precedents in lower-tier ATP events show that 0% pricing often signals a walkover or injury before the first ball is struck, rather than a genuine competitive deficit. In similar 2024–2025 cases on Polymarket, contracts with near-zero implied probability resolved to fair prices when players withdrew pre-match, aligning with Robinhood’s rule that markets settle to a fair price if no ball is played due to injury or forfeiture[2]. Traders should monitor official tournament schedules and player health updates, as a sudden withdrawal announcement would invalidate the current pricing and force a revaluation.

The primary catalysts are the 12:30 PM local start time and any pre-match medical reports from the Bunschoten venue. A recent ATP update on player availability for July 2026 events notes that several lower-ranked players face scheduling conflicts, which could precipitate a walkover[1]. If Bailly fails to appear, the market will not resolve to Romano but instead to a fair price, making the 0% entry a high-risk bet on a non-event rather than a competitive loss.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.