Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate

Platform comparison

Market context

Murphy Cassone and Tristan Schoolkate are set to face off in their Granby ATP qualifier, originally scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on 13 July 2026, though the match has not yet been played as of tonight. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 100% YES for Murphy Cassone advancing, implying the crowd believes he will win or that the opponent has already withdrawn before play began. Given the settlement rules, a walkover or pre-match withdrawal would force a 50-50 resolution, making the current pricing unusually aggressive unless the withdrawal is confirmed post-market creation.

Historically, tennis prediction markets with 100% pricing before a match date often signal a confirmed opponent withdrawal or a technical error in the market setup, rather than genuine certainty of a win. Comparable cases from 2024–2025 ATP qualifiers show that when a player is listed as the sole advance option at full price before the match starts, the market typically resolves to 50-50 once the walkover rule triggers, erasing the implied certainty. Traders should treat this as a potential mispricing unless official ATP notices confirm Schoolkate’s absence.

Key catalysts include the official ATP match status update for Granby, any withdrawal announcements from Schoolkate’s team, and the start-time confirmation on the tournament’s daily schedule. BetMGM currently lists Cassone at 2.20 odds, suggesting the broader sportsbook market does not view him as a guaranteed winner, which contrasts sharply with Polymarket’s pricing. Monitor the ATP website and tournament social channels for real-time updates on Schoolkate’s participation before the settlement window closes on 20 July 2026.

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Methodology

We track Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.