Cincinnati Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Juan Manuel Cerúndolo versus Félix Auger-Aliassime at about 6% for Cerúndolo, which leaves Auger-Aliassime as the clear favourite in the conditional token market on Polygon, settled in USDC. The contract resolves to the player who advances, so a late walkover, cancellation, or delay beyond seven days without a winner pushes it to 50-50 rather than a straight win for either side.

That price sits well below the sort of upset premium usually attached to a lower-ranked player in a Masters 1000 hard-court match, but it is not absurd given the draw context. Auger-Aliassime entered Cincinnati as the No. 2 seed and returned with a straight-sets win over Stefanos Tsitsipas after a month away, while Cerúndolo has already shown he can beat elite opposition on a big stage, including Jannik Sinner at Roland Garros this season.

Traders should watch for any scheduling changes at the Lindner Family Tennis Centre, because the market references an originally planned 18 August start and the settlement window runs to 25 August. The immediate catalyst is whether the match is actually played and completed on time; any fresh injury note, withdrawal, weather delay, or order-of-play reshuffle would matter more here than broader tournament form.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Cincinnati Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.