Swedish Open: Jan Choinski vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

Platform comparison

Market context

The Swedish Open in Bastad runs 14–20 July 2026, and this contract prices the first-round matchup between Polish qualifier Jan Choinski and Georgian former top-50 player Nikoloz Basilashvili. Polymarket currently values Choinski's advancement at 0%, reflecting either extreme confidence in Basilashvili or minimal liquidity on the contract. The match was originally scheduled for 13 July at 4:00 AM ET, though the settlement window extends to 20 July, allowing for weather delays or scheduling adjustments typical of clay-court tournaments.

Basilashvili's ranking and seeding status matter considerably here. He has competed regularly on the ATP circuit and holds wins over higher-ranked opponents, whereas Choinski's path to the main draw—if he qualified—represents a significant step up. Historical precedent on Polymarket suggests that unbackable 0% prices often reflect incomplete market participation rather than genuine certainty; conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean traders can enter positions at any probability level, but early-stage tennis contracts frequently show extreme valuations before the tournament week begins.

The primary catalyst is the official Swedish Open draw announcement and any late withdrawals or injuries in the days before play. Weather disruptions on clay courts can trigger the seven-day delay clause, which would force a 50-50 resolution. Traders should monitor ATP injury reports and Basilashvili's recent form on clay surfaces, where his game historically performs better than on hard courts. The tight settlement window—ending just hours after the tournament concludes—leaves minimal room for dispute resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.