Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Lorenzo Sonego

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon faces Lorenzo Sonego in the Round of 16 at the Swiss Open Gstaad today, with the on-chain market pricing Collignon as the clear winner at an 85% implied probability. This Polymarket contract, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, resolves to Collignon if he advances, while Sonego wins the share if he progresses. The 85% price significantly exceeds external modelling, which currently projects Collignon’s win chance between 61% and 66.7% based on advanced simulations and moneyline odds [4][6].

Historical precedents in ATP prediction markets show that when crowd-implied probabilities diverge sharply from modelled odds—often by 15–20 percentage points—traders frequently correct the price as match-day information flows in. In similar Gstaad fixtures, early overpricing of favourites has led to rapid arbitrage once serve statistics and surface performance data are confirmed, particularly on clay where Sonego’s record remains competitive despite lower odds [2][5].

Traders should monitor the official ATP Gstaad schedule for any delay announcements, as matches delayed beyond seven days trigger a 50-50 settlement under the contract rules. Key catalysts include pre-match warm-up reports confirming both players’ fitness and any weather-related interruptions, which could alter the over 20.5 games projection favoured by analysts [2]. No major injury news has emerged as of this morning, keeping the current price intact until the first serve [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Lorenzo Sonego across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.