National Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Jakub Mensik

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Jacob Fearnley to beat Jakub Menšík at only **5% YES**, which implies the market sees Mensik as the clear favourite in this conditional token contract settled in **USDC on Polygon**. Because the market resolves on whether Fearnley advances, the relevant question is not just who starts better, but who survives the round once the match is actually completed.

That low number is consistent with the wider tennis pricing. Pre-match odds on comparison sites put Mensik around **1.3** and Fearnley around **3.0-3.7**, while model-based previews cluster near a **70-75%** win chance for Mensik and roughly **25-30%** for Fearnley.[1][2][12][14] Mensik also carries the stronger ranking profile in the available listings, with Fearnley shown around ATP No. 110 and Mensik around No. 17, which helps explain why the Polymarket line is so one-sided.[1][5]

For traders, the key catalysts are the official ATP schedule, any late court changes, and whether the match is played to completion before the settlement window closes. The available listings place the match on **Court 5** with a scheduled start around **21:00**, but markets like this can still move on delays, withdrawals, walkovers, or a match that starts but does not finish.[1][5][6] If the fixture is cancelled, abandoned without a winner, or pushed beyond the seven-day rule in the market spec, Polymarket would resolve it **50-50** rather than to either player.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.