Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Lexington contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is treating Andre Ilagan advancing as effectively not priced in despite the listed match having been scheduled for 9 August on outdoor hard courts in Lexington.[2][13] On Polymarket, the bet is settled in USDC via conditional tokens on Polygon, so the relevant question is not the tennis abstractly but whether the named result is officially recorded before the settlement window closes.[market description]

That 0% mark is much lower than the broader tennis context would normally suggest. The pair have already met before, with Andre Ilagan winning their June 2026 hard-court meeting in straight sets, and several results sites still list Ilagan ahead in the head-to-head at 1-0.[3][11] Both players sit in the same general ATP range, which usually implies a live match rather than a near-certainty either way; past comparable pricing in rematches tends to move with availability of confirmed line-ups rather than with rank alone.[2][3]

The main catalysts are simple: whether the match actually starts, whether either player withdraws, and whether the tournament publishes an updated order of play or completed result before the seven-day cutoff in the market rules.[market description][2] As of the live listings, the fixture was expected on Stadium 1 at 17:00 UTC, so any late change to the draw, walkover, retirement, or weather delay matters more here than pre-match reputation.[2][13] If the match is not played at all, or drifts beyond the settlement deadline without a winner, the contract can resolve 50-50 rather than to either player.[market description]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.