Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniel Milavsky faces Duncan Chan in the Granby Challenger match originally slated for 13 July 2026, with the contest now priced at a 100% YES probability on Polymarket that Milavsky will advance. This near-total certainty mirrors historical patterns in lower-tier Challenger events where initial odds heavily favour one player, such as Milavsky’s 1.50 favourite status against Chan’s 2.375 implied price on Tennis Tonic, which also picked him to win in three sets[1]. In comparable Granby matches, matches rarely end in cancellations or ties, and when a player holds such a clear statistical edge, the conditional token market typically locks in early, leaving minimal arbitrage opportunity for USDC traders on Polygon.

Traders should monitor the official Granby 2026 schedule for any delay notices beyond the seven-day resolution window, as the market resolves to 50-50 if the match is not completed within that timeframe[3]. Key catalysts include the tournament’s $107,000 prize pool, which incentivises full participation and reduces the likelihood of no-shows, and any late injury announcements from either player’s team. With the settlement window ending 20 July 2026, the on-chain mechanics mean that once the match concludes, the conditional tokens will automatically settle to Milavsky or Chan based on who advances, with no manual intervention required.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.