Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 90% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane | 60% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 1 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 3 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Game Spread +/-3.5 | 50% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 90% YES probability for US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane. This market refers to the tennis match between Jaume Munar and Terence Atmane in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jaume Munar' if …
Methodology
This page reviews US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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