Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Match O/U 21.5 | 98% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Match O/U 22.5 | 75% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas | 33% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification atp: luka pavlovic vs juan pablo varillas. This market refers to the tennis match between Luka Pavlovic and Juan Pablo Varillas in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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