Roehampton: Filip Peliwo vs Nicolas Tepmahc

Platform comparison

Market context

The Roehampton qualifying tournament in August 2026 will feature a first-round match between Filip Peliwo and Nicolas Tepmahc, originally scheduled for 18 August at 08:00 ET. The conditional token on Polymarket currently trades at 100% YES for Peliwo, reflecting either extreme confidence in his advancement or insufficient liquidity to establish a genuine two-sided market. Settlement depends on a completed match result by 25 August; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution.

Peliwo, a Canadian player ranked in the lower reaches of professional tennis, has competed sporadically on the ITF and Challenger circuits. Tepmahc's competitive record remains sparse in publicly available databases, suggesting both players operate at the developmental fringes of professional tennis. Qualifying draws at grass-court events like Roehampton typically feature players ranked outside the top 300, where match outcomes carry high variance and upsets occur frequently. The 100% probability on Polymarket likely reflects minimal trading volume rather than genuine certainty about the result.

Traders should monitor official Roehampton draw confirmations and any last-minute withdrawals, which are common at qualifying level. Weather disruptions on grass courts can delay matches significantly, and illness or injury withdrawals in the week before the event would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. ATP or WTA announcements regarding the tournament schedule, if any changes occur, should be tracked through official tennis calendars. The settlement window closes 25 August at 12:00 UTC, allowing a seven-day buffer for match completion.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.