Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend

Platform comparison

Market context

Yuta Shimizu and Jay Dylan Friend are scheduled to meet in a professional tennis match at the Granby tournament on 13 July 2026. The Polymarket contract currently prices at 100% YES, implying near-certainty that the match will be completed with a decisive winner. This extreme probability reflects either exceptionally strong conviction about match completion or minimal liquidity depth on the NO side of the conditional token pair on Polygon. Settlement hinges on whether play concludes before 20 July 2026 at 14:00 UTC; any cancellation, tie result, or delay exceeding seven days without resolution triggers a 50-50 split of USDC collateral.

Historical precedent suggests that ATP Challenger and ITF-level tournaments in North America maintain high completion rates. The Granby event, held annually in Quebec, has operated consistently through recent seasons without widespread fixture disruptions. However, summer weather in the region—particularly afternoon thunderstorms—has occasionally forced rescheduling at similar venues. Neither Shimizu nor Friend holds a ranking suggesting injury concerns would substantially elevate default risk relative to typical professional matches.

Traders should monitor official Granby tournament announcements regarding draw confirmation and court assignments, typically released 48 hours before play. Weather forecasts for Quebec on 13 July become actionable roughly one week prior. Any withdrawal announcements from either player would immediately pressure the YES position, though the 100% pricing suggests the market has already incorporated baseline injury and withdrawal probabilities. The settlement window's seven-day grace period provides meaningful buffer against minor scheduling adjustments.

Methodology

We track Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.