Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 78% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 68% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Game Spread +/-5.5 | 52% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Match O/U 36.5 | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 46% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 2 Winner | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 1 Winner | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Set 3 Winner | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 21% |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev | 17% |
Market context
Market consensus: 78% chance of us open atp: otto virtanen vs andrey rublev. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Otto Virtanen and Andrey Rublev in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 31, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey Rublev on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →