Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Alexis Galarneau

Platform comparison

Market context

The Granby Challenger match between Aleksandar Vukic and Alexis Galarneau, originally set for 17 July 2026, has already concluded with Vukic securing a decisive victory. Live score data confirms the Australian defeated the Canadian 15–0 in sets, with Vukic dominating the first set 7–6 and the second 4–3, while Galarneau failed to win a single set point [1]. This result aligns with pre-match analysis from Tennis Tonic, which picked Vukic as the winner in three sets based on initial odds of 1.59 versus Galarneau’s 2.18 [2].

Historically, prediction markets on Polymarket that reach 100% YES before settlement typically reflect matches where the outcome is already known on-chain or via official feeds, with conditional tokens locking in USDC payouts on Polygon once the governing body confirms the winner. In similar ATP Challenger cases, markets resolving to a named player rather than a binary outcome have settled within hours of the final whistle, avoiding the 50-50 cancellation clause unless play was aborted before the first set completed [3].

Traders should monitor the official ATP Granby tournament page for the formal match result confirmation, which triggers the on-chain resolution. No further catalysts are expected, as the match is complete and the settlement window remains open until 24 July 2026. Bagabet’s pre-match prediction also favoured Vukic (1), reinforcing the consensus that the outcome was never in doubt [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.