ITF Chacabuco: Giorgia Pedone vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Giorgia Pedone vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon at **100% YES** on the Pedone side, which means the market is treating her as an overwhelming certainty rather than a narrow favourite. On Polymarket, the contract settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the only thing that matters is the official match outcome: Pedone advances, Perez Alarcon advances, or the special no-result path if the contest is not completed in time.

The current price sits far above the usual pre-match tennis spread because the live and form signals point to Pedone holding the edge in a closely matched ITF pairing. Both players are ranked in the low-300s, but available tournament data shows Pedone around WTA 338 and Perez Alarcon around WTA 341, with no prior head-to-head recorded in the data provided.[1][2][6] Comparable ITF Chacabuco listings also show Pedone as the market favourite, with Tennis Explorer listing pre-match odds around 2.27 for Pedone against 1.56 for Perez Alarcon, which is much closer to a standard coin-flip than to a 100% contract price.[12]

For traders, the key catalysts are straightforward: official score updates, whether the match is completed within the settlement window, and any change to the draw or schedule on the ITF side. Live feeds currently show the match under way in Chacabuco, which reduces the chance that the market resolves to the 50-50 no-contest outcome unless play is abandoned or delayed beyond the contract’s seven-day cutoff.[6][7] The main dependency is therefore not ranking data but whether the fixture reaches an official result before the settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track ITF Chacabuco: Giorgia Pedone vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.