Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze Game Spread +/-3.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification wta: erika andreeva vs mariam bolkvadze. This market refers to the tennis match between Erika Andreeva and Mariam Bolkvadze in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
We track US Open, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Mariam Bolkvadze across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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