National Bank Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Karolina Pliskova

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this match at **100% YES** on Mirra Andreeva, so the contract is effectively pricing a completed win for the Russian against Karolina Plíšková in Toronto, with settlement determined by the match result rather than the scoreline. Because the market is a conditional token on Polygon funded in USDC, holders are exposed to the event mechanics as much as the tennis: if the match is not played, ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, the contract resolves to 50-50 under the stated rules.

That near-certain print sits well above the broader reference prices in the tennis market. Tennis.com listed Andreeva as a 73% projected winner before play, while other odds feeds were in the same range, with one sportsbook-style line around -330 for Andreeva and +330 for Plíšková.[1][7][10][14] Comparable cases in women’s tennis usually only get this extreme when a top-five player meets a much lower-ranked opponent and the market expects the favourite to advance cleanly; even then, late-stage volatility can still matter if the favourite is nursing a physical issue or the fixture is moved.[1][7][17]

A trader should watch the official order of play, any rain or scheduling disruption, and any late medical or withdrawal news, because those are the main paths by which a 100% print can collapse towards the market’s fallback 50-50 outcome. Current match listings show the contest as upcoming in the National Bank Open round of 32/second round, with Plíšková listed around No. 66 and Andreeva around No. 5, which is the basic ranking gap underpinning the price.[1][3][4][15] If the match begins, the settlement question is straightforward; if it is postponed or abandoned, the token logic matters more than the pre-match odds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Karolina Pliskova across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.