Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Game Spread +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja | 48% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of barranquilla: leolia jeanjean vs julieta pareja. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Leolia Jeanjean and Julieta Pareja in the Barranquilla, originally scheduled for September 9, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
We track Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Julieta Pareja across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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