National Bank Open: Jessica Pegula vs Kamilla Rakhimova

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Jessica Pegula to win this National Bank Open match at **100% YES**, which implies the contract is effectively trading as a near-certain Pegula advance on Polygon using USDC and conditional tokens. In practical terms, that leaves little room for a surprise upset, a retirement, or a delayed settlement outcome before the 13 August window closes.

That reading is consistent with the wider pre-match market. External pricing in WTA Toronto has Pegula around an **86%–89%** win probability, with moneyline prices near **-870 to -925**, while Rakhimova is generally shown between **12% and 14%** chance to win.[1][2][3][4] Pegula is also the higher-ranked player by a wide margin in match listings, with Tennis Temple showing her as world No. 3 against Rakhimova at No. 83, and average bookmaker odds around **1.11** versus **6.22**.[10] For a Polymarket user, that means the market is not just reflecting outright match strength but also the contract’s binary settlement design: if the match is not completed, or falls into one of the exception cases in the rules, the outcome can still resolve away from a simple win/loss.

The main catalysts to watch are scheduling and whether the match is actually played to completion. Flashscore and 365Scores both list the fixture for Thursday, 6 August, with start times around 14:00–17:40 local time, so any court delay, withdrawal, or rescheduling matters more than usual when a market is already pinned at 100%.[6][12] Tennis outcomes can also hinge on last-minute medical timeouts or retirements, and this contract’s settlement rules explicitly treat cancellation, ties, or delays beyond seven days as a 50-50 outcome, so traders should track official tournament updates rather than only the pre-match odds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews National Bank Open: Jessica Pegula vs Kamilla Rakhimova across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.