Cincinnati Open: Mary Stoiana vs Tereza Valentova

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 0% YES, which effectively treats Mary Stoiana as not advancing unless the market is corrected or the result is later set via the settlement rules. The match itself has already been listed as a Cincinnati Open first-round meeting on hard court, with Stoiana and Tereza Valentova drawn for the women’s singles event, and live-score pages show Valentova as the stronger pre-match favourite on ranking and model-based projections.[1][2][3]

For users holding the conditional tokens on Polygon and settling in USDC, the key point is that the market resolves on advancement, not simply on whether the fixture was scheduled. Comparable tennis markets can remain pinned near zero when a favourite’s advance is already reflected in the order book, but they can still reset to 50-50 if a match is abandoned, never starts, or is delayed beyond the seven-day window in the contract terms.[1][9][15] The historical frame here is straightforward: with no head-to-head record and a sizeable ranking gap, the crowd has little reason to assign Mary Stoiana a path to progression unless the event is incomplete or overturned by default, retirement, or walkover handling.[2][3][13]

The main catalysts are operational rather than tactical: official tournament scheduling updates, any court reassignment, a last-minute withdrawal, or a weather-related backlog in Mason that could push the fixture outside the seven-day settlement window. Live scoreboards and match-centre pages indicated the contest was due on 14 August, with later updates showing the result recorded, so traders need to watch whether the exchange continues to track the completed outcome or whether a data discrepancy forces the contract back towards the protocol’s fallback treatment.[1][8][9][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.