Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

Platform comparison

Market context

Nigel Farage announced his resignation as Member of Parliament for Clacton in early 2024, triggering a by-election that must be held within three months of the vacancy. The Clacton seat has been Farage's stronghold since his election in 2019, when he secured 58% of the vote on a Brexit Party platform. Polymarket currently prices the YES outcome—Farage receiving votes in the by-election—at zero, reflecting the market consensus that he will not stand as a candidate. This pricing assumes his departure from Parliament is genuine and permanent, with no last-minute reversal before the writ is issued.

Historical precedent suggests sitting MPs who announce resignation rarely contest their own seats in subsequent by-elections, though exceptions exist. Farage's previous electoral history shows volatility: he stood down from the 2017 general election before returning to contest the 2019 race. However, the formal nature of parliamentary resignation procedures and the compressed timeline of by-election campaigns create structural barriers to candidacy that differ from general election cycles. The zero probability reflects these institutional constraints rather than absolute certainty about Farage's intentions.

Traders should monitor the Electoral Commission's official writ issuance, which formally opens the by-election period and establishes nomination deadlines. Any public statements from Farage regarding potential candidacy, particularly through his media outlets or social channels, would constitute a material catalyst. The settlement window extends to June 2027, providing substantial time for unexpected developments, though the three-month statutory window for holding the by-election means results should be known well before the deadline.

Methodology

This page reviews Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote % across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.