Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

2026 is projected to be among the top four hottest years globally, with a 19% chance it surpasses 2024 to become the new record holder. On Polymarket, the contract “Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?” currently prices a 30% YES probability that 2026 will rank #1, reflecting tighter odds than Kalshi’s 23.8% forecast for the same outcome [1][2]. The market settles on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index rank, with ties resolved by the tied year’s position, and closes at 00:00 UTC on 31 December 2026 [2].

Historically, strong El Niño events have driven top-tier heat rankings, as seen in 2023 and 2024, which both exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Carbon Brief estimates 2026 will likely land between 1.37°C and 1.58°C, with a best estimate of 1.47°C, placing it most probably as the second-warmest year (62% chance) but leaving room for a #1 finish [2]. The past decade has seen ten consecutive record-warm years, reinforcing the trend that recent extremes are not anomalies but part of an accelerating baseline [6].

Traders should monitor monthly NOAA and NASA temperature releases, particularly the June–August 2026 data, which will clarify whether El Niño’s peak warmth persists. James Hansen has publicly stated 2026 will be the hottest year, citing a margin wide enough to break 2024’s record if 2026 exceeds 2023 by 0.17°C [4][7]. Environment Canada also forecasts a warmer 2026 due to greenhouse emissions and natural phenomena, while Fox Weather notes pattern shifts that may moderate late-year temperatures [3][1]. Settlement occurs immediately upon data release, regardless of later revisions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.