Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this Schiphol high-temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is treating a top-end July 31 reading in Amsterdam as effectively off the table even though settlement depends only on the single highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol and reported by Wunderground. On Polymarket, the position is backed by USDC on Polygon and settles through conditional tokens, so the relevant question is not the forecast headline but whether the day’s observed maximum lands inside the contract’s Celsius band before the 12:00 UTC cutoff.

The historical frame is that Amsterdam’s late-July climate is usually mild to warm rather than hot. July averages are around 22°C for daytime highs, with typical late-July highs in the low 20s Celsius and long-run climate references clustering near 21–22°C[6][8][13]. Even so, the city has occasionally pushed into the low 30s, and one Amsterdam July guide notes an all-time July high of 32°C, showing that a materially hotter outcome is possible in the right synoptic setup[10]. That makes today’s 0% pricing a statement about how unlikely the market sees a threshold hit, not a claim that the station cannot print an unusually warm maximum.

The main catalysts are the actual weather setup over north-western Europe, any late-shifting fronts, and the day’s peak timing at Schiphol rather than downtown Amsterdam. A warm, breezy, mostly cloudy Friday forecast has been shown for Amsterdam with highs around 26°C–26.7°C on some current services, which is consistent with a moderate summer day but not necessarily with a large upside move in the afternoon maximum[3]. Traders watching the contract will typically focus on the Schiphol observation stream itself, because the market resolves off the station’s recorded daily high on Wunderground, not model guidance or city-centre reports[15].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.