Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 12 August 2026 will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and measured against discrete Celsius bands. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting either a technical settlement issue or extreme illiquidity on Polygon. Traders holding USDC on the network will need to evaluate whether the conditional token structure adequately captures Beijing's August heat patterns, given that resolution hinges specifically on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies of 1–2°C depending on measurement timing.

Historical August temperatures at Beijing Capital Airport show a consistent range of 26–35°C for daily highs, with peaks typically occurring between 2–4 p.m. local time. The 30-year average high for mid-August sits near 31°C, though the city has recorded extremes above 40°C during heat waves. Recent summers have trended warmer; 2023 saw multiple days exceeding 35°C in August, whilst 2024 experienced comparable patterns. These precedents suggest the crowd's 0% pricing may undervalue mid-range temperature bands (28–34°C), where historical frequency concentrates.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Broader atmospheric patterns—including the East Asian summer monsoon strength and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific—will influence whether August 12 falls within typical seasonal bounds or deviates significantly. Settlement depends entirely on Weather Underground's data feed remaining accessible and uninterrupted through the resolution window ending 12 August at 12:00 UTC.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.